GAME #27 PREVIEW — at NC State

The Orange go for the sweep in Raleigh

5 min readFeb 20, 2024

THE BASICS

Syracuse heads to Raleigh tonight to face an NC State team that is trying to scrap together a resume capable of sending them to the NCAA Tournament. The Orange are also going for a sweep of the Wolfpack.

NC State is coming off of a comeback win against Clemson, while Syracuse is looking to bounce back after dropping a road game to Georgia Tech.

The Wolfpack have a lot of experience — their roster is loaded with upperclassmen and graduate students/transfers, they love to work through DJ Burns, they have a guy who can go off at any time in DJ Horne, and they look to pressure the ball defensively.

Keys for Syracuse?

Limit Horne and Burns
Turn NC State over and get to the line (NC State doesn’t turn it over much…but they do foul a lot)
MAKE SOME SHOTS

ABOUT THE WOLFPACK

Non-Conference Wins: (201) Vanderbilt, (209) Saint Louis, (223) Tennessee Martin ,(250) Abilene Christian, (261) The Citadel, (322) Charleston Southern, (349) Maryland Eastern Shore, (357) Detroit Mercy
Non-Conference Losses: (5) Tennessee, (16) BYU, (68) Mississippi,
ACC Wins: (26) Wake Forest, (30) Clemson, (53) Virginia, (81) Miami, (88) Boston College, (138) Georgia Tech, (154) Notre Dame, (177) Louisville
ACC Losses: (10) UNC, (26) Wake Forest, (51) Pittsburgh, (53) Virginia, (64) Virginia Tech, (89) Syracuse

What are they good at (Top 5 in ACC games)

2nd — Offensive Turnover Rate (they don’t turn it over much)
3rd — Steal %
3rd — Defensive 2P%
4th — Defensive Turnover Rate (they turn teams over)
5th — Defensive EFG%
5th — FT%

What are they not good at (Bottom 5 in ACC games)

14th — Defensive FTA/FGA (they send teams to the line)
14th — Offensive EFG%
12th — Offensive Rebound %
12th — Offensive 2P%
11th — Defensive Rebound %
11th — Overall Offensive Efficiency
11th — Offensive 3P%

NOTABLE NATIONAL RANKS:

95th ranked offense; 58th ranked defense
5th best in the country at taking care of the ball
259th at keeping teams off the foul line

KEY PERSONNEL AND STATS

Casey Morsell is a graduate guard, plays over 32 minutes, and is scoring 11.6 points per game. He has been super efficient offensively, but he’s a steady impact player for NC State. The UVA transfer also averages a steal per game.

DJ Horne has been shooting lights out this season (43.1%) and single-handedly brought NC State back against Clemson. He pulls it from anywhere, averages 17.2 points per game, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 steals .

Jayden Taylor (JR) is similar to Morsell statistically. Not great anywhere, not terrible anywhere, but steady and capable.

DJ Burns is the big man with the soft touch inside for NC State. The lefty plays in the high post and mid post and is second on the team in assists. He averages 12 per game and will be a load to handle for the thin inside that is Syracuse.

Michael O’Connell is another experienced guard for the Pack. He’s averaging 4.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game (first on team).

Dennis Parker is the lone freshman who gets significant playing time for NC State. He’s more of a threat from inside the arc, but is also shooting 30.8% from 3.

Mohamed Diarra has been playing well as of late — and hitting 3s. The big man leads the team in rebounding with just 15.9 minutes played per game. Look for him to put up bigger numbers than usual tonight.

Ben Middlebrooks plays 14.6 minutes per game, rebounds, and shoots layups. He’s 1–13 from 3.

BASIC MATCHUP STATS

**Stats are from EVERY game of the season — not just ACC games**

What stands out?

Both of these teams force a good amount of turnovers and get to the line at a decent rate
NC State isn’t super strong on the offensive glass but they are better than Syracuse
Efficiency-wise, these teams are similar…but NC State takes better care of the ball

ADVANCED MATCHUP STATS

Here are the interesting stat matchups:

Syracuse has the 14 ranked offense in ACC games; NC State has the 6th ranked defense
Syracuse gets to the line a ton (2nd) and NC State sends teams to the line a lot (14th) — this will be huge
Syracuse is #1 in the conference at forcing steals, but NC State is #1 in the conference at not allowing steals
NC State turns the ball over at the second lowest rate in conference play; Syracuse turns teams over better than anyone else in the ACC

3 PIECES OF GOOD NEWS FOR SU

NC State sends teams to the foul line at a very high clip
NC State isn’t great offensively; they’re always due for a potentially low-shooting night
They don’t turn it over…but they did last time these two teams played (14 turnovers)

3 PIECES OF BAD NEWS FOR SU

NC State doesn’t turn the ball over
The Wolfpack have some size and physicality inside
NCSU is experienced — especially at the guard spot

BURNING QUESTIONS

Can Syracuse get to the line to make up for a struggling offense?
Can Syracuse turn NC State over?
How does the Orange protect the paint against a bigger and more physical front line from NCSU?

WHAT HAPPENS WITH A WIN?

This would be a good win for the NIT resume and it’s always nice to get a sweep of any team in conference play. A win would also put Syracuse in a good spot to claim a 7–8 seed in the ACC Tournament.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOSS?

Syracuse isn’t expected to win this one (36% chance for a win based on KenPom). A loss would, however, drop them to 16–11 on the season (7–9 in ACC play.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Here are the next 5 games for Syracuse:

Sat, Feb 24 vs. Notre Dame (79% chance to win)
Tues, Feb 27 vs. Virginia Tech (49% chance to win)
Sat, Mar 2 at Louisville (65% chance to win)
Tues, Mar 5 at Clemson (20% chance to win)
ACCT FIRST ROUND — if the tournament started today, Syracuse would be in the 8/9 game vs. FSU
ACCT SECOND ROUND — if the tournament started today and Syracuse won their first game, they’d have UNC next

Keep the faith!

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